IntelCenter has created threat actor specific Domain GenAIs in the IntelCenter Database (ICD) . These Domain GenAIs have access to all the spoken and written words by that actor in IntelCenter’s holdings. The Islamic State (IS) Domain GenAI has access to 9.2M words from IS as of 31 May 2024. Using this knowledge the Domain GenAI is able to provide powerful insights into groups in just seconds.

IntelCenter asked its IS Domain GenAI to break out the focus of IS based on the group’s messaging in 2024 and 2023 and then identify what has changed. The response was insightful and concerning. In short, IS concern about being eliminated by the international coalition has faded away. It is still very much focused on growing the group.

Here is the IntelCenter IS Domain GenAI’s unedited response:

Based on the provided text, the focus of the Islamic State (IS) in 2023 appears to share several continuities with its focus in 2024, but there are some nuanced differences:

Continuities:
1. Persistence and Resilience: In both years, IS emphasizes its enduring presence and resilience despite international efforts to eliminate it. The narrative of an inevitable return and empowerment is consistent.

2. Global Reach and Expansion: IS continues to highlight its activities and influence in multiple regions, including the Levant, Africa, and Central Asia. The global aspirations remain a focal point.

3. Ideological Commitment: The commitment to its ideological foundations and methodology, claiming divine legitimacy, remains a central theme in both years.

4. Military and Political Goals: IS maintains its focus on military actions against perceived enemies and the establishment of control in various regions. The emphasis on civil administration and justice is also consistent.

5. Propaganda and Media Strategy: The importance of media efforts, urging supporters to rely on IS's central media sources and engage in information warfare, is a continuing strategy.

Differences:

1. Strategic Adjustments and Focus Areas:

2023: There is a notable focus on the challenges IS faces from the international coalition and the efforts of these coalitions to eliminate it. The text mentions the difficulty for the coalition to achieve its goals and the resilience of IS.

2024: The focus seems to shift more towards the success in specific regions like the Sahel, Mozambique, and the Levant. There's also an emphasis on the ideological purification and unification of Muslims against perceived enemies.

2. Emphasis on Historical and Religious Justification:

2023: The narrative includes references to historical and religious foundations but is more focused on the resilience against international coalitions.

2024: There is an increased emphasis on historical and religious narratives, portraying the group's actions as part of a divine mission and using these justifications to motivate followers.

3. Propaganda Tactics:

2023: The media strategy includes a strong call to counter disinformation and rely on central media sources, which is consistent with 2024, but the text in 2023 may have a stronger emphasis on urging the media warriors to support the battlefield efforts indirectly.

2024: The media strategy continues but with a more pronounced call for supporters to engage in direct propaganda efforts and reinforce the ideological narrative.

4. Regional Dynamics and Specificity:

2023: The text seems to be more general in discussing global reach and the coalition's efforts against IS.

2024: There is a more detailed focus on specific regions like the Sahel, Mozambique, and the ideological efforts to unify Muslims against perceived enemies.

Summary:

While the core themes of persistence, global reach, ideological commitment, military goals, and media strategy remain consistent, the differences lie in the strategic adjustments and specific focus areas. In 2024, there is a more detailed and region-specific emphasis, along with a stronger narrative on historical and religious justification. The propaganda tactics also appear to be more focused on direct engagement and reinforcement of the ideological narrative.