IntelCenter asked its Iraq Domain GenAI to assess the risk to Iraqis seen as working with or supporting the US in Iraq in light of reporting by Reuters on 6 Sep. 2024 that an agreement has been reached between the US and Iraq for a complete withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2026 with a significant reduction in 2025. It provided this analysis based on its knowledge of more than 9.3M words from terrorist, rebel, separatist and proxy groups in Iraq in the IntelCenter Database (ICD).

Executive Summary:
Local Iraqis who have been working with and supporting US forces in Iraq face an extremely high risk of being targeted by pro-Iranian groups, which have consistently threatened violence against collaborators. Given the reported US withdrawal timeline, these individuals should aim to leave the country before mid-2025, as this period marks the beginning of a significant reduction in US military presence. Departing within this timeframe will help mitigate the heightened risks associated with the anticipated increase in aggression from pro-Iranian groups as the withdrawal progresses. Remaining beyond mid-2025, particularly into late 2025 and 2026, will likely become highly difficult and dangerous, as these groups intensify their efforts to target and harm those perceived as collaborators.

Here is the full exchange:

User:
The US is reportedly pulling all of its forces out of Iraq by the end of 2026 with a significant reduction in 2025. Based on your knowledge of pro-Iranian group messaging in Iraq. When would local Iraqis who have been working with and supporting US forces need to leave the country in order to avoid being killed or captured by pro-Iranian groups? Identify the ideal departure window and at which point it will likely become highly difficult and dangerous for them to get out of Iraq.

Iraq Domain GenAI:
Based on the messaging from pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, it is clear that they strongly oppose any US military presence and have explicitly threatened continued violence until all foreign forces are expelled. Given their history and statements, local Iraqis who have been working with and supporting US forces are at significant risk of being targeted by these groups.

Considering the reported timeline for US withdrawal, the ideal departure window for local Iraqis would be before the significant reduction in 2025. This is because:

1. Escalation of Threats: As the US begins to significantly reduce its presence in 2025, pro-Iranian groups are likely to escalate their activities and threats against any remaining US-affiliated individuals.

2. Reduced US Protection: With the reduction of US forces, the ability of US troops to provide protection and facilitate safe departures will be diminished.

3. Increased Surveillance and Aggression: Pro-Iranian groups have demonstrated a strong capability for surveillance and aggression, and as the withdrawal date approaches, their efforts to target collaborators may intensify.

Ideal Departure Window:
• Before Mid-2025: Local Iraqis should aim to leave as early as possible in 2025, ideally before mid-year. This would provide a buffer period before the significant reduction of US forces and the anticipated increase in threats and violence from pro-Iranian groups.

Highly Difficult and Dangerous Period:
• Late 2025 to End of 2026: As the US withdrawal progresses towards its final stages, the situation will likely become highly difficult and dangerous. The pro-Iranian groups' activities will probably peak during this period, making it extremely risky for any US-affiliated individuals to remain.

In summary, local Iraqis supporting US forces should target their departure before mid-2025 to avoid the heightened dangers that will accompany the significant reduction of US troops and the eventual full withdrawal by the end of 2026.

User:
What is the percent likelihood that pro-Iranian groups in Iraq will target local Iraqis who are seen as having worked with or supported the US presence in Iraq?

Iraq Domain GenAI:
Based on the historical behavior, public statements, and actions of pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, the likelihood that they will target local Iraqis seen as having worked with or supported the US presence is very high. These groups have consistently expressed strong opposition to any foreign military presence, particularly that of the United States, and have shown a willingness to use violence against those perceived as collaborators.

Factors Contributing to High Likelihood:
1. Historical Precedent: Pro-Iranian groups have a history of targeting individuals and groups perceived as collaborators or supporters of US forces.
2. Public Statements: The rhetoric from leaders and spokespeople of these groups frequently includes threats against those who are seen as aiding the US.
3. Operational Capability: These groups have demonstrated their capability to carry out targeted attacks against both foreign forces and local collaborators.
4. Strategic Goals: Expelling US influence from Iraq is a core objective, and targeting local supporters is a strategy to undermine any residual US presence or influence.
5. Recent Escalations: Statements and actions following pivotal events, such as the assassination of key figures like Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, indicate an increased willingness to take severe actions against perceived collaborators.

Estimated Likelihood:
Given these factors, the percent likelihood that pro-Iranian groups will target local Iraqis perceived as having worked with or supported the US presence is extremely high, likely in the range of 80-90%. This high probability reflects the consistent and aggressive stance these groups have taken against any form of collaboration with US forces.

Conclusion:
Local Iraqis who have worked with or supported the US presence are at significant risk of being targeted by pro-Iranian groups. This underscores the urgency for these individuals to plan for their safe departure well before the complete withdrawal of US forces to mitigate the risk of being captured or killed.

IntelCenter Note on GenAIs:
GenAIs can do amazing things today. However, they are not perfect. They get things wrong and can hallucinate. When reading content produced by a GenAI, it should be done with a critical eye and never accepted blindly. This really isn’t much different than how we should be treating all sources of information, whether it is from a new analyst or a seasoned expert giving a presentation. For IntelCenter’s Domain GenAIs, they are working off a curated set of knowledge that is sourced and can be reviewed, which significantly improves the quality and relevance of their work. You can employ these today to do things that would otherwise be impossible. They are not a free pass to skip critical thinking.