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Note: The below assessments and charts are dynamic and will be updated as new developments warrant. Standing Assessment Brief on Most Likely Future Baseline Level Jihadi Attack Activity Based on an analysis of the 47 most significant jihadi attacks during the past seven years by al-Qaeda and groups in the al-Qaeda orbit, while excluding rebel/insurgency theaters, future attacks are likely to continue at a rate of 7-10 per year. These attacks will continue to be spread throughout the year, however, a higher tempo rate can be expected between Aug. through Oct. with the lightest frequency occurring in Jan. and Feb. The most likely targeted national interests for future attacks are the US and its allies in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as Arab governments perceived by al-Qaeda as illegitimate. American, British, Saudi, Russian and Israeli/Jewish interests are likely to continue to attract the highest number of attacks with the majority of attacks against Russian and Saudi interests occurring within their respective countries. The most common tactics are likely to continue to be vehicular and suicide bombings. The most frequent targets are likely to remain places of gathering (i.e. hotels, nightlife, etc.), government, military/police, tourist and mass transit. The average number of people killed per attack is likely to remain around 50 with a slow upward trend. Attacks will most likely occur during the workweek between the hours of 0700-1400 unless the target is a place of gathering where there is evening activity or a residential area for which the most likely window would be 1800-0100. Qualifiers - This only takes into consideration al-Qaeda and groups in the affiliate orbits while excluding activity in Chechnya, Iraq, Afghanistan and other insurgency theaters. - This is only an assessment of expected future baseline attack activity. It is not saying that all attacks will fit within this model. In fact, we are 100% certain that they will not based on the same data we used to build the assessment. What we are saying is based on an analysis of past activity over the last seven years as well as a number of other factors this is likely to be the average type of attack that can be expected in between those that break from the general trend, such as 9-11 did in 2001. This assessment is geared towards providing guidance on the most frequent type of future activity expected and is not designed to provide an indication where there will be a lack of attacks. In other words if a particular country or target class does not fit in the above criteria, this assessment is not an indication that there is not likely going to be any attacks against it. - Statistical and analytical backing for the above assessment can be found in the following reports: • Jihadi Tactical Execution Timing Statistics (JTETS) v1.1 - 25 August 2005 (1.2MB PDF) - NEW Charts The below charts come from the adove listed reports. We strongly encourage reviewing the complete reports in order to better understand the methodology behind the charts as well as other significant data and analysis.
The above chart illustrates the number of people killed per attack in the 47 most significant attacks conducted by al-Qaeda and affiliate groups during the past seven years. An examination of the 47 most significant al-Qaeda and affiliate group attacks excluding operations in insurgency arenas over the course of the past seven years reveals that, based on current death toll figures, the Sharm el-Sheikh attack is the 7th most deadly attack while the 7 Jul. London attack is the 9th most deadly. The current average killed per attack excluding kidnapping or shooting operations and 9-11 is 51.
The above chart illustrates al-Qaeda and affiliate group operational tempo during the past seven years. Prior to 2002 there were generally never more than one major operation per year. In the period from 2002 to 25 Jul. 2005 the number of large-scale or otherwise significant attacks averaged eight per year or one every 46 days. This average is excluding a peak of activity, 14 attacks, which occurred in Saudi Arabia during 2004. If you remove only low-level operations in 2004 that occurred in Saudi Arabia and count the major attacks, it pushes the average number of operations per year up to nine attacks per year or one every 41 days. The months that totaled the greatest level of operational activity over the 7-year period examined are Aug. through Oct. The greatest number of attacks conducted during one month occurred in Oct. 2002 when five attacks were successfully executed. The lowest levels of operational activity over the period are in Jan. and Feb. The recent attacks in London on 7 and 21 Jul., as well as the 23 Jul. attack in Sharm el-Sheikh do not at this point in time represent a significant increase in the operational tempo of al-Qaeda and its affiliates. As of 25 Jul. 2005, the number of attacks occurring in 2005 compared to the same period in 2004 is consistent or slightly below the level of activity seen in 2004 when examing only the number of significant attacks.
The above chart illustrates the execution timing of attacks by al-Qaeda and affiliate groups during the past seven years in 29 of the most significant attacks. Attacks involving kidnappings or shootings where two or fewer people were targeted were not counted. Attacks occurred with greatest frequency during two windows in a 24-hour period. The highest frequency window spanned between 0700-1400 with 59% of all attacks occurring during this 7-hour period. Within that window, 35% of the attacks occurred during the first two hours from 0700-0900. The second highest frequency window occurred between 1800-0100 with 41% of all attacks occurring during this 8-hour period. No attacks from the examined set over the 7-year period occurred between 0200-0700 and 1500-1800. The frequency of attacks within these two windows is a byproduct of the optimal or perceived optimal targeting windows of the attacked target sets more than any other factor.
The above chart illustrates the geographic location of the 47 most significant attacks conducted by al-Qaeda and affiliate groups during the past seven years. Attacks counted occurred in 18 different countries. Only four of these countries, Egypt, Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia, suffered more than two attacks during the period. Saudi Arabia topped the list with 16 attacks due to the dramatic spike in operational activity in Saudi Arabia in 2004. Russia followed with six attacks and Egypt with four. Future attacks are likely to occur again in all of the 18 countries that have already suffered one or more attacks as well as in countries where attacks have never occurred before. The attacks in Qatar, Tunisia, UK, Morocco, Tanzania and other locations are firm proof that a lack of previous attack activity does not grant countries immunity.
The above chart illustrates the targeting of national interests in the 47 most significant attacks conducted by al-Qaeda and affiliate groups during the past seven years. An examination of targeting trends by national interests over the course of the period shows that US interests were directly targeted significantly more than any other country with 14 attacks. The British and Russians followed with six attacks each. They were followed by attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets at five attacks. The targeting spread across national interests is likely to hold consistent with minor variations and new additions occurring over coming years.
The above chart illustrates the target classes hit in the 47 most significant attacks conducted by al-Qaeda and affiliate groups during the past seven years. Foreign nationals and tourists ranked highest in terms of target class most frequently targeted by jihadi groups during the period. This number was significantly increased due to the volume of shooting operations conducted by Qaeda al-Jihad Organization in the Land of the Two Holy Places in Saudi Arabia during 2004. Attacks on government facilities/personnel and places of gathering, to include hotels and concerts, totaled nine attacks each. Strikes on military and police facilities came in at seven attacks, while in the past two years attacks on mass transit systems went from zero to four.
The above chart illustrates the tactics utilized in the 47 most significant attacks conducted by al-Qaeda and affiliate groups during the past seven years. The tactic most frequently utilized was vehicular bombings with 19 attacks. Due to the 2004 period in Saudi Arabia, shootings came in at 12 with suicide bombings and hostage takings following at eight and five respectively. The majority of future attacks are likely to continue to be vehicular bombings with suicide bombings and hostage takings not far behind. It is important to remember, however, that al-Qaeda’s flair for constant innovation and creativity is likely to continue to intersperse these types of attacks with never-before seen type events like 9-11 when the appropriate resources are available. Copyright 2005 IntelCenter/Tempest Publishing, LLC, All Rights Reserved |
