Pro-Iranian Groups' Actions in Iraq & Syria Amid US Iraq Withdrawal Over 2025/2026: ICD Domain GenAI
In light of public reporting by Reuters on 6 Sep. 2024 that an agreement has been reached between the US and Iraq for a complete withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2026 with a significant reduction in 2025, IntelCenter asked its ICD Domain GenAI what actions pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria are likely to take based on its extensive knowledge of their messaging. It broke out its assessment for the following periods: the remainder of 2024, 2025 and then 2026 pre and post withdrawal. At the time, the ICD Domain GenAI had access to more than 80M words from terrorist, rebel, separatist and proxy groups around the world going back to 1 Sep. 2001 in the IntelCenter Database (ICD).
Executive Summary:
Pro-Iranian groups are set to capitalize on the announced US withdrawal from Iraq, employing a multi-phased strategy to consolidate their influence. For the remainder of 2024, they will intensify propaganda, organize public demonstrations, and conduct low-level attacks to maintain pressure and ensure adherence to the withdrawal timeline. In 2025, they will escalate targeted attacks, bolster recruitment, and maneuver politically to secure a favorable post-withdrawal environment. As the final withdrawal date in 2026 approaches, they will emphasize victory narratives, issue threats against delays, and prepare to fill power vacuums. Post-withdrawal, these groups will focus on eliminating residual US influence, entrenching their political power, and demonstrating effective governance to solidify their position as the dominant force in Iraq.
Here is the full exchange:
User:
The US is set to significantly reduce its forces in Iraq in 2025 and be completely withdrawn from the country by 2026. Based on your knowledge of what pro-Iranian groups say in their messaging, what actions do you assess they will begin taking. Break it out for the following periods: the remainder of 2024, 2025 and 2026 in the run-up to the US final withdrawal and then in the period when no US forces remain in Iraq.
ICD Domain GenAI:
Based on the content and patterns observed in the messaging of pro-Iranian groups, here is an assessment of their likely actions and strategies in response to the announced timeline for the US withdrawal from Iraq:
Remainder of 2024
Messaging:
• Increased Propaganda: Pro-Iranian groups will likely ramp up their propaganda efforts, portraying the US announcement as a victory for the resistance. They will emphasize the effectiveness of their struggle and the inevitability of the US withdrawal.
• Calls for Vigilance: They will call for vigilance and continued pressure to ensure the US adheres to the announced timeline. This will include warnings against any potential delays or changes in the withdrawal plan.
Actions:
• Demonstrations and Rallies: Organized events to demonstrate public support for the withdrawal and to celebrate the perceived victory. These events will also serve to mobilize and unify their base.
• Low-Level Attacks: While avoiding major escalations, they might conduct low-level attacks against US forces and interests to maintain pressure and demonstrate capability.
• Coordination with Political Allies: Engaging with Iraqi political factions that are sympathetic to their cause to push for legislative actions supporting the complete withdrawal of US forces.
2025
Messaging:
• Celebratory Rhetoric: Continued emphasis on the success of their operations and the nearing end of US presence. They will use this period to strengthen their narrative of resistance and victory.
• Warning Against Delays: Persistent warnings against any perceived delays or changes in the withdrawal timeline, emphasizing their readiness to respond if necessary.
Actions:
• Targeted Attacks: Potential increase in targeted attacks on US convoys and bases to hasten the withdrawal process and deter any potential reconsideration of the timeline.
• Increased Recruitment: Leveraging the imminent withdrawal as a recruitment tool to bolster their ranks, portraying it as a critical moment in the struggle against foreign occupation.
• Political Maneuvering: Intensifying efforts to influence Iraqi politics to ensure a favorable post-withdrawal environment. This includes pushing for the election of pro-Iranian candidates and the passage of supportive legislation.
2026 (Run-up to Final Withdrawal)
Messaging:
• Final Victory Narratives: As the final withdrawal date approaches, their messaging will increasingly focus on the imminent victory and the end of the US occupation.
• Threats of Retaliation: Clear warnings that any delay or partial withdrawal will be met with significant resistance and potential escalation.
Actions:
• High-Profile Attacks: If there are any indications of delays or partial withdrawals, they might resort to high-profile attacks to force compliance with the timeline.
• Consolidation of Influence: Preparing to fill any power vacuums left by the departing US forces by consolidating control over key areas and institutions.
• Public Celebrations: Organizing large-scale public events and demonstrations to celebrate the final withdrawal and to solidify their narrative of victory.
Post-2026 (After Complete Withdrawal)
Messaging:
• Victory and Sovereignty: A strong emphasis on the victory over US forces and the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty. They will portray themselves as the true defenders of Iraq.
• Focus on Reconstruction: Shifting narratives towards rebuilding Iraq and addressing any remaining foreign influences in the country.
Actions:
• Security Operations: Conducting operations to eliminate any remaining US influence and to secure areas previously held by US forces.
• Political Entrenchment: Strengthening political alliances and embedding their influence deeper into Iraqi governance structures.
• Assertive Governance: Implementing governance measures in areas under their control to demonstrate their ability to provide stability and services, contrasting this with the period of US occupation.
Overall, pro-Iranian groups will strategically use the announced US withdrawal timeline to bolster their influence, maintain pressure, and ultimately position themselves as the primary power brokers in post-US Iraq.
User:
What impact will this likely have on pro-Iranian groups in Syria?
ICD Domain GenAI:
The US withdrawal from Iraq is likely to have significant implications for pro-Iranian groups in Syria, particularly in terms of strategic, operational, and political dynamics. Here’s an assessment of the likely impacts:
Strategic Impact
Enhanced Supply Lines:
• Improved Logistics: With the US no longer present in Iraq, pro-Iranian groups in Syria will benefit from more secure and efficient supply lines for weapons, fighters, and other resources. The land corridor from Iran through Iraq to Syria will face fewer obstacles, facilitating the transfer of military and logistical support.
• Strategic Depth: The withdrawal strengthens Iran’s strategic depth in the region, providing it with a continuous zone of influence stretching from Iran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, enhancing its ability to project power and influence across the region.
Operational Impact
Increased Military Support:
• Resource Allocation: Pro-Iranian groups in Syria may receive increased support in terms of manpower and materiel from their counterparts in Iraq, who will have more freedom of movement and resources following the US withdrawal.
• Coordinated Operations:** The ability to coordinate more closely with Iraqi militias will likely lead to more sophisticated and coordinated military operations against opposition forces and other adversaries, including ISIS and potentially Israeli targets.
Expansion and Entrenchment:
• Territorial Control: These groups may seek to expand and entrench their territorial control in Syria, particularly in strategic areas such as the Deir ez-Zor region, which is key for maintaining supply routes and controlling resources.
• Recruitment and Training: Enhanced recruitment and training efforts can be expected, leveraging the narrative of victory in Iraq to attract new fighters and bolster their ranks in Syria.
Political Impact
Increased Influence:
• Syrian Regime Support: With increased resources and operational freedom, pro-Iranian groups will likely strengthen their support for the Assad regime, helping to stabilize and consolidate Assad’s control over contested areas.
• Local Governance: These groups may increasingly involve themselves in local governance and reconstruction efforts, using their enhanced position to win hearts and minds and build local legitimacy.
Regional Dynamics:
• Lebanese Hezbollah: The strengthened position of pro-Iranian groups in Syria will also benefit Lebanese Hezbollah, providing it with a more secure rear base and facilitating the transfer of advanced weaponry and fighters.
• Israeli Concerns: Israel will likely view the strengthened position of pro-Iranian groups in Syria with heightened concern, potentially leading to increased Israeli military actions to counterbalance the growing Iranian influence.
Security Implications
Heightened Tensions:
• Conflict with Opposition: The bolstered capabilities of pro-Iranian groups may lead to increased confrontations with Syrian opposition forces, including those supported by Turkey and other regional actors.
• US and Coalition Forces: If any residual US or coalition presence remains in Syria, it may face increased attacks and harassment from emboldened pro-Iranian groups.
Border Security:
• Iraq-Syria Border: The Iraq-Syria border will likely become more porous and controlled by pro-Iranian militias, facilitating the movement of fighters and resources but also potentially increasing the risk of cross-border smuggling and illicit activities.
In conclusion, the US withdrawal from Iraq will likely lead to a significant strengthening of pro-Iranian groups in Syria, enhancing their strategic, operational, and political capabilities. This will have broad implications for regional dynamics, increasing tensions and potentially leading to greater instability as these groups consolidate their positions and expand their influence.
User:
Have the groups in Iraq and Syria been anticipating this withdrawal?
ICD Domain GenAI:
Yes, pro-Iranian groups in both Iraq and Syria have been anticipating the US withdrawal and have been preparing for such a scenario. Their actions and strategic planning indicate a long-term vision to capitalize on the eventual departure of US forces. Here are some key indicators and actions that reflect their anticipation:
Indicators of Anticipation
1. Long-term Strategy:
• Persistent Resistance: Pro-Iranian groups have maintained a consistent strategy of resistance against US presence in the region, indicating a long-term expectation of eventual US withdrawal.
• Narrative Building: Their messaging has frequently highlighted the inevitability of US departure, framing it as a victory for the resistance and a step towards regional sovereignty.
2. Political Maneuvering:
• Influence in Government: In Iraq, pro-Iranian groups have worked to embed themselves within the political system, gaining significant influence in parliament and other key institutions. This positions them to shape the post-US political landscape.
• Legislative Actions: Efforts to pass legislation demanding the withdrawal of US troops, such as the Iraqi parliament's resolution following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, reflect their anticipation and desire to expedite the process.
3. Military Preparations:
• Militia Strengthening: Both in Iraq and Syria, pro-Iranian militias have been bolstering their capabilities, including recruitment, training, and acquiring advanced weaponry. This prepares them to fill power vacuums and assert control post-withdrawal.
• Coordination and Alliances: Strengthening coordination between various pro-Iranian groups across the region, including Iraqi militias and Syrian factions, to ensure a unified front in the absence of US forces.
Actions Reflecting Anticipation
In Iraq:
• Public Demonstrations: Organized large-scale protests and demonstrations against US presence, particularly after significant events like the Soleimani assassination, to maintain pressure and mobilize public sentiment.
• Low-Level Attacks: Conducted ongoing low-level attacks on US forces and interests to create a hostile environment and signal their readiness to escalate if necessary.
• Political Lobbying: Worked closely with sympathetic politicians and factions to push for policies that facilitate US withdrawal and enhance their own influence.
In Syria:
• Territorial Control: Pro-Iranian groups have been strategically positioning themselves in key areas, particularly in eastern Syria, to control vital supply routes and resources.
• Military Build-up: Increased their military presence and capabilities in anticipation of reduced US oversight and intervention, preparing to assert dominance in contested areas.
• Support for Assad: Strengthened their support for the Assad regime, ensuring a stable ally that can help counterbalance any opposition forces in the region.
Conclusion
Pro-Iranian groups in both Iraq and Syria have been actively anticipating the US withdrawal and have taken several strategic, political, and military actions to prepare for this eventuality. Their long-term vision and consistent efforts to embed themselves within the political and military fabric of the region position them to capitalize on the power vacuums that the US departure will create. As the withdrawal process unfolds, these groups are likely to intensify their activities to ensure they emerge as the dominant forces in the post-US landscape.
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